Schwarber Demoted - Comparisons to his "Response"
By Nick Shepkowski: @Shep670
It’s shocking that it actually reached this point but at the same time hard to feel too surprised by the news of a .171 hitter being demoted. Kyle Schwarber is struggling, as his on base percentage being .295 even feels a bit high for those who have watched him in 2017. Sure, he does still hit the ball seemingly a mile when he connects but those cases have been few and far between for the amount of poor at bats he's had this summer.
Theo Epstein was on the radio with Danny Parkins and Matt Spiegel after the news came out Thursday and mentioned that Schwarber “will be defined by how he responds”. Epstein added there was no emotional attachment to the move before sighting several current stars who were demoted back to the minors after poor play at the top level.
So how will the man who seemingly came out Hollywood script last October to help the Cubs win their first title in 108 years, respond?
Things from here obviously could go a number of ways. Schwarber could rediscover things and be back before long, crushing bombs regularly and hopefully hitting somewhere around at least .250, a number the Cubs would take if his walk rate were to continue.
Or they could continue on their southward trajectory.
I decided to do some compare Schwarber to a couple players we're familiar with who have struggled out of the gate in recent years, look at how closely Schwarber's career-path or numbers match and see where those couple of players sit now. Here's what I found:
Michael Conforto was drafted 6 picks after Schwarber in 2014, going 10th overall to the Mets. He too sped through the minors, making his Major League debut a year and 6 weeks later, on July 24th. That year he hit 9 home runs for the Mets in 56 regular season games, just more than half of the 16 Schwarber hit that summer. Conforto’s OPS did however nearly match Schwarber’s as Conforto went .841 and Schwarber .844.
In the 2015 World Series, Conforto turned it up a notch hitting .333, a pair of homers and having an OPS of 1.046. The Mets lost the series to Kansas City in 5 games but it surely wasn’t because Conforto wasn’t performing. World Series heroics? Sounds familiar enough, even if in a losing cause.
Move ahead to 2016 and expectations were sky-high for both the Mets and Conforto. Getting to be an full-time player for the first time, he was supposed to help solidify a lineup that had trouble scoring enough runs for its phenomenal pitching staff.
The season wound up going anything but according to plan for Conforto. Through his first 65 games played he hit just .222 with a .296 OBP. He slugged 10 home runs but his .727 OPS left plenty to be desired for a lineup that desperately needed more offense.
He struck out nearly once per game, 63 times in 65 games to be exact and at a 25.9% clip. Because of all that and the Mets needing offense he was sent down to AAA Las Vegas on June 24, before making his return to the big-squad in late July.
The rest of the way Conforto was far from a world beater, hitting just .216 but his on-base rose significantly to .343. He hit just a pair of home runs in those 44 games he played after being recalled but perhaps the demotion helped get the ball in motion for the ridiculous 2017 he’s had to date.
Conforto started 2017 with the Major League squad and has been one of the best hitters in the entire NL. To date he’s hit .278 with a .402 on base while slugging .547. That combines for an OPS of .949 which is good enough to currently be 11th best in the NL and 16th best in all of MLB.
One thing that may surprise is that Conforto’s strikeout rate has essentially remained the same from his troublesome 2016, going from 25.6% to 25.1% today.
Schwarber returning to form at the plate and being a top 20 hitter in the game would be ideal, even if unlikely. At minimum it shows that just because of a disastrous first half in his first full big-league season, that all is not in fact lost.
So if that’s the best case, what recent comparison would be a sign of the worst news?
Imagine a guy having a .344 batting average, .488 OBP and .781 slugging over the last two post-seasons. Now imagine that same guy hitting 3 home runs and helping end a 108 year title drought for a team with those numbers.
No, those aren’t Kyle Schwarber’s playoff numbers as a Cub, those are none other than current Kansas City Royal, Jorge Soler’s.Theo Epstein was on the radio with Danny Parkins and Matt Spiegel after the news came out Thursday and mentioned that Schwarber “will be defined by how he responds”. Epstein added there was no emotional attachment to the move before sighting several current stars who were demoted back to the minors after poor play at the top level.
So how will the man who seemingly came out Hollywood script last October to help the Cubs win their first title in 108 years, respond?
Things from here obviously could go a number of ways. Schwarber could rediscover things and be back before long, crushing bombs regularly and hopefully hitting somewhere around at least .250, a number the Cubs would take if his walk rate were to continue.
Or they could continue on their southward trajectory.
I decided to do some compare Schwarber to a couple players we're familiar with who have struggled out of the gate in recent years, look at how closely Schwarber's career-path or numbers match and see where those couple of players sit now. Here's what I found:
Michael Conforto was drafted 6 picks after Schwarber in 2014, going 10th overall to the Mets. He too sped through the minors, making his Major League debut a year and 6 weeks later, on July 24th. That year he hit 9 home runs for the Mets in 56 regular season games, just more than half of the 16 Schwarber hit that summer. Conforto’s OPS did however nearly match Schwarber’s as Conforto went .841 and Schwarber .844.
In the 2015 World Series, Conforto turned it up a notch hitting .333, a pair of homers and having an OPS of 1.046. The Mets lost the series to Kansas City in 5 games but it surely wasn’t because Conforto wasn’t performing. World Series heroics? Sounds familiar enough, even if in a losing cause.
Move ahead to 2016 and expectations were sky-high for both the Mets and Conforto. Getting to be an full-time player for the first time, he was supposed to help solidify a lineup that had trouble scoring enough runs for its phenomenal pitching staff.
The season wound up going anything but according to plan for Conforto. Through his first 65 games played he hit just .222 with a .296 OBP. He slugged 10 home runs but his .727 OPS left plenty to be desired for a lineup that desperately needed more offense.
He struck out nearly once per game, 63 times in 65 games to be exact and at a 25.9% clip. Because of all that and the Mets needing offense he was sent down to AAA Las Vegas on June 24, before making his return to the big-squad in late July.
The rest of the way Conforto was far from a world beater, hitting just .216 but his on-base rose significantly to .343. He hit just a pair of home runs in those 44 games he played after being recalled but perhaps the demotion helped get the ball in motion for the ridiculous 2017 he’s had to date.
Conforto started 2017 with the Major League squad and has been one of the best hitters in the entire NL. To date he’s hit .278 with a .402 on base while slugging .547. That combines for an OPS of .949 which is good enough to currently be 11th best in the NL and 16th best in all of MLB.
One thing that may surprise is that Conforto’s strikeout rate has essentially remained the same from his troublesome 2016, going from 25.6% to 25.1% today.
Schwarber returning to form at the plate and being a top 20 hitter in the game would be ideal, even if unlikely. At minimum it shows that just because of a disastrous first half in his first full big-league season, that all is not in fact lost.
So if that’s the best case, what recent comparison would be a sign of the worst news?
Imagine a guy having a .344 batting average, .488 OBP and .781 slugging over the last two post-seasons. Now imagine that same guy hitting 3 home runs and helping end a 108 year title drought for a team with those numbers.
Outside of batting average (.364 to .344) those are all higher than what Schwarber has done in the last two post-seasons, and we are all aware of the post-season legend Schwarber is already seen as, regardless of what the future brings.
But the comparison, and a scary one at that isn’t as basic as post-season heroics.
During his time in Chicago Jorge Soler stepped to the plate 765 times, 226 more than Schwarber has. In that time he hit .258, had a .328 on-base, slugged .434 all for a .762 OPS, far from impressive.
Schwarber’s in that time?
Cubs fans, you may want to close your eyes...
.207 BA, .325 OBP, .430 SLG and .755 OPS.
Yep, what Schwarber’s done to date is put down a worse career slash-line than that of the bust Soler has played out to be.
If you’re wondering Soler was demoted by the Royals to AAA on June 6 after hitting just .162 this season. His on-base number was a dreadful .292 while he slugged a pathetic .273 before the demotion.
Obviously just because there is a likeness in age, service time and number of at-bats it’s easy to make a comparison but just because of similarities it doesn’t mean that’s how something will play out, positively or negatively. But even with the faith given by Epstein and company and seeing Conforto's turnaround, seeing Schwarber's numbers next to that of Soler’s has to be extremely alarming, if even in a small sample size.
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